In June 2019 we published our draft Business Plan for the RIIO-T2 period. As part of this, we used scenario analysis to assess the potential future generation and demand requirements of the transmission system in the north of Scotland and, from this, determine capital investment requirements.
In response to the draft Business Plan, stakeholders expressed support for our approach but asked for more information on the scenarios used and how these compared with our Certain View for investment.
This paper provides an overview of our approach to scenario analysis, the future energy scenarios used in our planning for RIIO-T2, the derivation of our Certain View and how we propose to manage uncertainty. This work is presented in the context of the UK and Scottish national policy targets of achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of this century.